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Canada

Cardigan


MP elect: Kent McDonald (LPC)

Latest projection: May 18, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Cardigan


Liberal Kent McDonald
Conservative James Aylward
NDP Lynne Thiele
Green Maria Rodriguez
PPC Adam Harding
Independent Wayne Phelan

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Cardigan 57% ± 8% LPC 38% ± 8% CPC LPC 2025 56.9% 338Canada vote projection | May 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cardigan >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cardigan

LPC 57% ± 8% CPC 38% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Cardigan 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 18, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 47% LPC 34% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 47% LPC 35% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 45% LPC 36% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 43% LPC 39% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 43% CPC 41% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 46% CPC 39% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 49% CPC 35% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 34% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 32% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% CPC 31% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 30% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 30% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 30% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 30% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 30% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 28% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% CPC 28% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 29% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 29% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 29% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 30% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 57% CPC 31% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 59% CPC 32% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 59% CPC 32% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 59% CPC 32% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 58% CPC 32% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 31% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 58% CPC 31% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 58% CPC 32% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 58% CPC 31% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 58% CPC 31% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 58% CPC 32% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 58% CPC 32% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 57% CPC 32% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 57% CPC 33% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 57% CPC 37% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-05-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Cardigan

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 18, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Cardigan



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 57% ± 8% 49.3% 50.6% 56.9% CPC 38% ± 8% 29.1% 30.9% 37.5% NDP 2% ± 2% 6.6% 9.8% 2.0% IND 2% ± 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 1% ± 2% 13.8% 4.8% 1.3% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.0% 3.3% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.
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