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Canada

Nipissing—Timiskaming


MP elect: Pauline Rochefort (LPC)

Latest projection: May 11, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Nipissing—Timiskaming


Liberal Pauline Rochefort
Conservative Garry Keller
NDP Valerie Kennedy
Green Louise Poitras
PPC John Janssen

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Nipissing—Timiskaming 47% ± 5% LPC 45% ± 5% CPC 6% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 46.9% 338Canada vote projection | May 11, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nipissing—Timiskaming 68%▼ LPC 32%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 11, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 47% ± 5% CPC 45% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Nipissing—Timiskaming 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 45% NDP 25% LPC 23% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 44% NDP 25% LPC 24% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 44% LPC 25% NDP 24% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 42% LPC 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 40% LPC 31% NDP 22% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 40% LPC 35% NDP 19% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 39% LPC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 39% LPC 38% NDP 16% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 40% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 39% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 48% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 48% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 47% CPC 38% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 13% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Nipissing—Timiskaming



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 47% ± 5% 38.5% 36.9% 46.9% CPC 45% ± 5% 27.5% 31.9% 44.9% NDP 6% ± 2% 22.6% 23.3% 6.1% PPC 1% ± 1% 5.2% 7.9% 1.1% GPC 1% ± 1% 6.3% 0.0% 1.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.
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