logo
logo
Canada

Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong


MP: Marilyn Gladu (CPC)

Latest projection: June 8, 2025
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 53% ± 8% 49.8% 46.5% 53.1% LPC 38% ± 8% 21.4% 19.4% 37.9% NDP 5% ± 4% 20.7% 21.0% 5.4% PPC 1% ± 2% 2.7% 11.0% 1.5% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.


Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong 53% ± 8% CPC 38% ± 8% LPC 5% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 53.1% 338Canada vote projection | June 8, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 8, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong

LPC 38% ± 8% CPC 53% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 61% NDP 22% LPC 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 60% NDP 21% LPC 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 60% NDP 21% LPC 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 57% NDP 20% LPC 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 56% NDP 19% LPC 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 56% LPC 17% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% LPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 55% LPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 23% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 54% LPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 54% LPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 54% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 54% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-06-08 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader
OSZAR »