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Canada

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski


MP: Rebecca Chartrand (LPC)

Latest projection: June 8, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 45% ± 11% 23.6% 25.2% 45.5% NDP 29% ± 10% 50.2% 42.6% 28.7% CPC 24% ± 9% 20.1% 24.2% 24.1% PPC 2% ± 3% 1.2% 5.0% 1.7% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.8% 3.1% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Churchill—Keewatinook Aski


Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 45% ± 11% LPC 29% ± 10% NDP 24% ± 9% CPC LPC 2025 45.5% 338Canada vote projection | June 8, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 97%▼ LPC 3%▲ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | June 8, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC 45% ± 11% CPC 24% ± 9% NDP 29% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 38% CPC 35% LPC 20% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 38% CPC 34% LPC 21% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 38% CPC 34% LPC 21% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 37% CPC 34% LPC 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 36% CPC 32% LPC 25% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 32% NDP 32% LPC 28% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 33% NDP 30% LPC 30% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 32% CPC 30% LPC 30% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 32% CPC 30% LPC 30% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 32% LPC 32% CPC 28% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 28% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 29% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 29% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 29% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 28% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 28% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 28% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 36% NDP 32% CPC 27% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 35% NDP 35% CPC 27% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 27% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 27% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 26% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 26% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 36% LPC 35% CPC 25% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 36% LPC 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 35% LPC 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 35% NDP 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 36% NDP 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 36% NDP 36% CPC 25% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 36% NDP 35% CPC 25% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 36% NDP 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 36% NDP 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 27% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 27% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 36% NDP 36% CPC 26% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 26% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 26% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 25% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 25% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 26% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 26% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 26% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 25% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 25% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 25% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 26% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 46% NDP 29% CPC 24% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP 3% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 66% CPC 34% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 69% CPC 31% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 70% CPC 30% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 65% CPC 35% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 67% CPC 30% LPC 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 44% NDP 43% LPC 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 48% LPC 26% NDP 26% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 46% CPC 30% LPC 25% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 45% CPC 29% LPC 26% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 46% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 83% CPC 10% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% NDP 13% CPC 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 78% NDP 14% CPC 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 78% NDP 14% CPC 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 79% NDP 13% CPC 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 78% NDP 13% CPC 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 75% NDP 14% CPC 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 76% NDP 12% CPC 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 74% NDP 15% CPC 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 70% NDP 20% CPC 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 70% NDP 22% CPC 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 67% NDP 26% CPC 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 65% NDP 29% CPC 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 48% NDP 48% CPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 58% LPC 38% CPC 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 59% LPC 38% CPC 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 59% LPC 37% CPC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 56% LPC 40% CPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 54% LPC 44% CPC 2% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 51% LPC 47% CPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 50% LPC 47% CPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% NDP 49% CPC 2% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% NDP 47% CPC 2% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% NDP 49% CPC 2% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 53% NDP 45% CPC 2% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% NDP 45% CPC 2% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% NDP 44% CPC 2% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% NDP 44% CPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% NDP 44% CPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 51% NDP 47% CPC 2% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 50% NDP 49% CPC 2% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 52% LPC 47% CPC 2% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 54% NDP 45% CPC 1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 55% NDP 44% CPC 1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 54% NDP 45% CPC 1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 55% NDP 44% CPC 1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 58% NDP 41% CPC 1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 57% NDP 42% CPC 1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 57% NDP 41% CPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 57% NDP 42% CPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 55% NDP 43% CPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

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