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Ontario

Sarnia—Lambton


MPP : Bob Bailey (PCPO)
Latest projection: June 7, 2025
Safe PCPO

Recent electoral history | Sarnia—Lambton


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 41.0% 52.8% 52.7% 52% ± 9% NDP 35.8% 37.4% 23.6% 19% ± 7% OLP 17.9% 4.4% 10.5% 18% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 4% ± 3% GPO 4.6% 3.7% 3.2% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2%

Sarnia—Lambton 52% ± 9%▲ PCPO 19% ± 7%▼ NDP 18% ± 6% OLP 4% ± 3% NBPO PCPO 2022 52.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sarnia—Lambton >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | June 7, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sarnia—Lambton

OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 52% ± 9% NDP 19% ± 7% NBPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Sarnia—Lambton 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP NBPO June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 54% NDP 21% OLP 13% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 55% NDP 21% OLP 13% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 59% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 59% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 58% NDP 20% OLP 13% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 60% NDP 18% OLP 13% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 60% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 60% NDP 18% OLP 13% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 61% NDP 16% OLP 13% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 61% NDP 16% OLP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 61% NDP 16% OLP 14% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 61% NDP 16% OLP 13% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 62% NDP 16% OLP 13% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 51% NDP 20% OLP 18% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 52% NDP 19% OLP 18% 2025-06-07

Odds of winning | Sarnia—Lambton

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07
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